TOPEKA (KSNT) – New polls released this week show some surprising results from likely voters in the Kansas US Senate and Gubernatorial races.
In the race for governor a new Remington Research poll gives incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback a 48-45 percent lead over Democratic challenger Paul Davis. When the margin for error in the poll is factored into the poll, the race is a statistical dead heat.
In the US Senate race between three-term incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts and Independent challenger Greg Orman, the challenger has a one point lead over Roberts, but shows a continued decline for the challenger from a lead of as much as seven points in September.
In the most recent Insight Kansas poll, Orman’s lead is 1.2 percent while in the Governor’s race Davis has a just a 0.3 percent lead, again a statistical dead heat in both races.
The Insight Kansas poll, released October 17th also projects voter turnout among Republicans to be between 46-55%.
“If Republicans turn out in 2010 numbers of 55%,” says Kansas First News political analyst Dr. Bob Beatty “it will be tough for Davis and Orman. If Democrats turn out in 2006 numbers (30% of voters) and/or unaffiliated turn out in 2008 numbers of 25 percent, then Davis and Orman are helped immensely.