We’re continuing to monitor the second half of next week for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. This forecast still bears a fair share of uncertainty since we’re still quite a few days out, but here are our initial thoughts.
There is the isolated chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms come Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most of us look to stay dry, but areas generally to the south and the east of the turnpike have that slight chance of a few showers or storms. The better chance of severe weather for Tuesday looks to stay to the south of the region, more so in southeast Kansas.
Rain chances spill over into Wednesday, but again, severe weather doesn’t look likely. Our initial focus for possible strong to severe thunderstorm was Thursday, but that no longer looks to be the case either. However, afternoon rain chances are still in the forecast for Thursday. Simply put, it will be too cool for thunderstorm development, and we don’t look to have much of a lifting mechanism or trigger for thunderstorm development come Thursday, either.
Friday is a slightly different story. Now, Friday still isn’t a “slam dunk” forecast for severe weather right now, but the potential is there. Models are hinting at strong moisture advection from south to north, so the moisture would be there for precipitation. However, you need more than just moisture for thunderstorms to develop and erupt. Next, we’re looking at temperatures to climb into the upper 60s. Typically storms like surface temperatures to be just a little bit warmer than that, but its’ still doable for thunderstorms to feed off of temperatures in the upper 60s. The cloud cover could also be a limiting factor. As it stands right now, model guidance suggests we may be socked under mostly cloudy skies. Ideally, you want sunny skies during the early day time hours. That sunshine heightens the instability in the atmosphere, and that’s something thunderstorms love to thrive off of come late afternoon into the evening when they develop during that time frame. However, limited sunshine would be a negative factor in prime thunderstorm development. Also, we’re looking at a possible dry line to develop, and all that is a front that separates the dry air from the more humid air. However, a dry line can also trigger thunderstorms to initiate and quickly grow. But as it stands right now, the set-up of that dryline and the overall better chance of strong storm development looks to occur more to our south in south central Kansas and central Oklahoma. Some strong storm chances could spill over into Saturday, but again, the better shot of thunderstorms will be well off to our south.
However, the track of this set-up could still change. This is more of a “heads-up” forecast for you, and it’s a forecast your entire KSNT Storm Track weather team will be keeping a close eye on.