We’re tracking a very May-like forecast over the next several days, complete with severe storm chances and more humid weather. It’s been a rather quiet start to one of the most traditionally active weather months we see all year. Mother Nature realizes that we’re in the peak of severe storm season and she’s going to be cranking up that threat over the next few days. Our first chance for severe weather this week will happen later today. Most of Northeast Kansas is under a ‘SLIGHT RISK’ for severe weather, with the western counties under an ‘ENHANCED RISK’ – a bulls-eye of sorts. We’ll literally watch strong thunderstorms pop-up over Central Kansas during the early/mid afternoon. Some of these storms will head east, while others miss our area completely. It looks like the western counties could see the first of the strong/severe storms by dinnertime (4-7pm). Things could get interesting if a couple storm cells stay discrete. It’s those solo storms that could have large hail and even spin-up a strong tornado. Computer models agree that the farther east the storms move, the better chance they have a ‘lining out’ – where heavy rain and damaging winds become the much greater severe weather threats. The eastern counties (place like Topeka and Lawrence) won’t see the storms until the evening hours (7-10pm). It’s worth mentioning that the chance for severe weather DECREASES as the evening wears on and the storms march east.
Leftover showers and non-severe storms will likely spill over into Wednesday morning, but most spots will be dry by dawn tomorrow. We’ll have about a 36-hour window of time to settle things down and dry out before our next round of severe weather rumbles in. Yes, we’re talking about Thursday evening too. The set-up for Thursday looks fairly similar in terms of timing and threat level. Locally heavy rain, high winds, large hail and even a tornado are all possible by Thursday afternoon/evening. As is always the case this time of year, convection and severe weather is almost always predicated on what already happened in the hours before more storm develop. In other words, things can change over the next several days so we’ll take the extended forecast on a day-by-day and hour-by-hour basis so you know exactly what to expect. And at this point, it still looks stormy by the end of the week with more scattered showers/storms (non-severe) in the forecast for most of Friday and maybe through the morning hours on Saturday. Stay tuned.
Yesterday was hot and humid, there’s no doubt about that. Heat indices were in the middle 90s on Monday afternoon, but temperatures will slowly slip as this week unfolds. And it’s not a big surprise as to why…rain chances. Additional cloud cover and rain are in the forecast the rest of the week and a much more active weather pattern will allow temperatures to cool heading into the weekend. Highs will likely stay in the 80s through Thursday, but expect nothing warmer than the 60s and 70s from Friday through next Monday. For the most part, daytime temps will hangout in the 60s starting on Friday. Remember, our average high temperature for this time of the year is warming and it’s now up to 76°. Highs should once again approach that seasonal standard by the middle of next week. But until then, enjoy the overall cooling trend with plenty of rain-free time between the stronger storms this week.
You’re already in the right place for the latest weather information across Northeast Kansas. Be sure to check back for regular forecast updates, as tonight’s storms move in. You can also download our KSNT Storm Track Weather App for free right here. It’s also available (for free) on your local mobile marketplace – Android, iPhone, etc. It’s the very best way to get an up-to-the-minute forecast on-the-go! No matter where you are, we’re always watching and always tracking!
Have a great day!
– KSNT Storm Track Meteorologist Kyle Borchert